The state will record 464,000 cases of COVID-19 over the next six months, meaning nearly one in six West Australians will get the virus by August according to the long-awaited modelling of the Omicron variant released on Tuesday afternoon.
The modelling suggested the Omicron variant was significantly less severe than the Delta variant but much more transmissible and would take a much different course through the state.
WA’s Omicron outbreak modelling shows a peak two months after the border reopens, but does not detail the public health or contact tracing which would be in place to achieve this. Credit:WA Health
Under a ‘conservative scenario’ unlikely to be reached, the state would record 5685 general ward hospital admissions, 715 ICU admissions and 129 deaths in the first six months from when the hard border comes down on March 3.
The five-page modelling document, which informed the McGowan government’s decision to drop the hard border, expands on headline figures revealed by Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson that cases would peak at 10,000 and four lives would be lost per day.
It suggested the Omicron wave would hit its peak between April and May when 10,363 symptomatic cases would be recorded each day.
About 443 general ward beds would be occupied at the peak, while 56 ICU beds would be in use and between three and four deaths would occur every day.
The modelling also predicted there would be 40 days when more than 200 general beds would be used for COVID-19 patients and, of those, 27 days when more than 300 general beds would be occupied.
It also factored in the booster uptake, which was predicted to hit 65 per cent of the eligible population by March 2.
It also found more vulnerable cohorts would have much greater coverage for booster vaccinations with more than 79 per cent of over 50s and more than 90 per cent of over 70s expected to be protected by March 2.
One in six West Australians predicted to have COVID-19 by August: modelling
Source: Philippines Alive
