An analysis by the UK Health Security Agency estimated three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine offers a 70 per cent protection from symptomatic infection from the current dominant strain of Omicron, from two-weeks following the booster jab.
Another phenomenon possibly at play is that by getting sick with other viruses doing the rounds, we are more protected against COVID-19.
“You might have a rhinovirus at the moment, or RSV or one of the other cold viruses that are just all over the place right now,” explains virologist Associate Professor Ian MacKay of the University of Queensland.
“While you’ve got them, your body’s mounting a little bit of an internal immune response. You might feel a bit more tired, maybe a little bit warm. That sort of thing is the response of your body to those viruses, which also then protects you from other viruses, because you have what’s called interferon firing up after those infections.”
Then there is a real possibility that we actually haven’t escaped COVID-19 at all, we just haven’t noticed it or tested positive for it. MacKay says even back in 2020 when no one was vaccinated, the number of asymptomatic infections was estimated at 20 to 40 per cent.
He explains this rate is likely to be even higher now, as vaccination reduces the number of people with signs and symptoms of COVID-19.
Only about 20 per cent of Australians, roughly 5.5 million, have recorded an official COVID-19 diagnosis. Professor Tony Cunningham, an infectious diseases physician at the Westmead Institute for Medical Research, suspects in places like Melbourne in Sydney the real rate of infection would be more than 50 per cent.
When the Omicron outbreak first began smashing daily case records in NSW in December, the state’s health minister Brad Hazzard declared that everyone in NSW “is probably going to get Omicron at some stage”.
Months later, some epidemiologists and scientists remain hopeful that he was wrong – that it will still be possible for some to avoid COVID-19, and that it is worthwhile to keep trying.
Epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett and infectious diseases physician Dr Paul Griffin both say while it is inevitable people will come across the virus, not everyone will get infected. Griffin, an associated professor at the University of Queensland, says it is reasonable to expect some people could remain “negative” particularly if they keep up to date with their vaccinations and take other precautions.
MacKay says after getting three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, people can further reduce their chances of testing positive or passing on COVID-19 by wearing a good quality P2 or N95 mask, hosting people outside if possible and using HEPA filters, especially in venues where there are mass gatherings.
However, even he isn’t optimistic he will be able to avoid COVID infections in the long term, and he warns that even people who have had a “mild” or “moderate” dose of COVID-19 are at risk of longer-term issues including cardiac damage and long COVID, a debilitating condition that remains poorly understood and likely to affect thousands of people.
“It’s not something you want to get … but if you are going to get it, you want to make sure you get as low a dose as possible, so masks and filtration of air with help that, and that you’re vaccinated so you’ve already got some pre-existing immunity to fend off the worst of it.
“That’s the best we can do right now.”
– With Melissa Cunningham
Is COVID-19 infection inevitable?
Source: Philippines Alive
